For months, a field of candidates has campaigned relentlessly as they seek the support of likely Republican voters to support them in the Republican Party’s primary presidential elections. The winner of this vote will become the Republican Party’s presidential candidate and represent them in the 2024 general election this November against Democratic Candidate and incumbent President Joe Biden.
The first of these votes are held in Iowa and New Hampshire, on Jan. 15 and Jan. 23 respectively, with the possibility that whoever pulls out ahead in these early states will take the whole nomination. This is because the candidates often find themselves torn between holding on in a race they might only have a slim chance to win and their expectation to unite behind a clear winner of the competition, with many past primaries practically ending after the results of these two states as even moderately performing candidates drop out.
But the Republican Primaries have hardly been by-the-book. For starters, the clear frontrunner in this race is former President Donald Trump, facing possible criminal conviction in a number of cases ranging from his handling of classified documents and his actions on Jan. 6, 2021. He maintains widespread popularity, even going so far as to discredit the Republican Party’s debates as a “waste of time,” effectively dodging any attack to his support that could be leveled by the other candidates.
Firstly there is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who at first looked like a potentially strong candidate that even Trump-supporting, “Make America Great Again (MAGA)” Republicans could get behind. But beyond the initial enthusiasm, DeSantis ultimately floundered around in his campaigning, throwing away any shot in this competition due to his unwillingness to challenge Trump’s candidacy directly.
Former US Representative to the UN Nikki Haley remains in the running too. While her appeal among moderate Republicans, exhausted with any kind of MAGA movement within the party, might have made her an excellent candidate to win the general election, in the Republican primaries she’s failed to gain ground against a Republican Party who increasingly embraces the MAGA movement conspiracy and openly denies the legitimacy of the 2020 election.
Also in the running is Vivek Ramaswamy, an outsider who has gone to great lengths to endear himself among MAGA Republicans. Similar to DeSantis in more than a few ways, he framed himself as an heir-apparent to the MAGA movement of Trump than a serious candidate that could replace him. His poll numbers reflect this, with so few actually supporting him over the other candidates that he failed to qualify for the most recent Republican Presidential debate.
Despite these many strong personalities challenging Trump’s leadership in the Republican Party, the vast majority of Republicans have remained unshaken in their support behind the former president. Trump, at this point, seems positioned to win comfortable majorities through these early contests. This might only grow in the later races throughout the spring if further consolidation among his opposition does not occur, which is unlikely.
That is to say, despite the fierce competition for many months over the candidacy, it appears that a majority of Republicans still firmly believe in the viability of running Donald Trump, making 2024 an electoral re-match with President Joe Biden. This is to say nothing about measures by the Colorado and Maine state legislatures to remove Donald Trump off of the ballot in their elections, in a case which will be looked over by the Supreme Court this year.
