While we have a while before the Virginia Republican and Democratic primaries occur on March 5th, the race to 2024 is in full swing and the possibility of an even more contentious 2020 rematch is fast encroaching. But who’s going to be on the ballot when Virginia voters head to the polls?
On the Republican ballot, former President Donald Trump is soaring in polls and has cruised to victory in Iowa and New Hampshire’s GOP primaries. The field has since shrunk significantly and after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis withdrew and endorsed Trump last week, the sole major candidate in Trump’s way is Nikki Haley, the former Ambassador to the UN and Governor of South Carolina. Haley is being outpolled by Trump in every state including VA but Haley is defiant in her quest to become President. Former candidates DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Chris Christie remain on the GOP ballot in Virginia despite withdrawing, Businessman Ryan Binkley, whose minor candidacy has gained some traction, will also be on Virginia’s GOP ballot.
Most of the Virginia Republican delegation on both the federal and state level, have remained quiet during the primary season. Congressmen Ben Cline and Morgan Griffith, former Liberty University President Jerry Falwell Jr, and several other Virginia Republicans have endorsed former President Trump. Governor Glenn Youngkin, once considered a possible contender himself for the presidency, declined to make an endorsement and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears has declined to endorse Trump and labeled him a “liability”. Youngkin was also once floated to be Trump’s running mate but that hasn’t been as discussed since Trump insulted the Governor back in November 2022 and Youngkin’s general decline in popularity.
On the Democratic side, President Biden remains at the top of the polls among Democratic voters nationwide and in Virginia. He is currently facing primary challenges from author Marianne Williamson and Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips. Despite criticism toward the President, he is still running for re-election and the primary season might be a sweep for him as well. He, Phillips, and Williamson will be on the ballot in VA on March 5th as well.
Independent and third party candidates have until August 23rd to meet the requirements for ballot access. The Libertarian Party, Green Party, and Party for Socialism and Liberation all had some form of ballot access last election in the state and are expected to try to gain it again. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr, a anti-vaccine advocate and environmental lawyer, is running a syncretic candidacy that’s getting nationwide focus and so is philosopher Cornel West’s left wing independent candidacy. The No Labels organization is also considering running a centrist ticket in 2023 and have floated several sitting politicians as candidates; it could throw the whole race into question if they do. Whether any third party gets access remains to be seen but they have over 7 months to meet said requirements.
In the most recent polling in the state done by Mason-Dixon, 43% of Virginians back President Biden, 36% back former President Trump, 14% back Kennedy, 8% are undecided or voting for another candidate. VCU polling for one on one races has Biden ahead of Trump, 43% to 40%, and Haley ahead of Biden, 43% to 38%. Virginia went from solidly Republican til 2008 and has been solidly Democratic in presidential elections since. Voters will have time to ponder the candidates and their stances on the issues before November 5th.
